华体会下载网址

www.cccpism.com

[ԭ]ǰƵĸĸPǰ

޲׼

[ԭ]ǰƵĸĸPǰ

Ҫ19877¿ʼƸĸⳡĸҪĿǽص¬ʣRuble overhang⡢ƻΪгơȫʽʹг1990ͨġз͡ҵ񷨡ʽȷƸĸķ򡣵ǣⳡĸȴͷӿ˶֯һպһΪһʧܵʷ

ؼ֡ ĸ Ƿ

19921£˹ͳ˹ҶԭСζƴӴ˳ΪʷƵııȻֱԭǸǷʧܵġĸ֧֧ۧܧѣˣ˽ǷĸƵӰ죬ڿԭƻƵгĸ﷽򣬱صޡ

һƸĸıԭ

ÿҶиԲͬƣ˵ĩΪֹǿԱֳࣺʽг붫ʽļƻơǰѾΪʱƶȷ˼꣬ʮ¸ǰͨȫƣ߽ӿֵĸɡ߷ǵʶ̬ͽ׼űʵIJͬھְҲǧ
ȣṹͬгλϼĹкλ¼ĸ˽ŴȨи˽еΪƹһҹӦ˽иմ˺ҵŴƻֻһм丽¢ȫҵְܣ˽нֹڡ
ΣŴģʽͬгƵŴ൱ɢΪŴǶģʵΪĿꡣг£˺ҵԽֱӽлŴסˣ֮䡢ҵ֮䶼ھϵЩرߵҵĴƻڵŴ뾭üƻĸƷֻDZƻָҵŴ磬ƻҪijҵоҵųڴ乺豸ߣƻҪijҵʽʱȻӴͶʣоҵŶڴƻڵŴΪûоƲķգҲ޷Ӧߵ
󣬻߲ͬг£пͨ׼ƶȵڻҹӦӰʡˮƽҵʻȹؼĺ۾ñƻƲҪֻߣΪڼƻ£лҺŴһҲֻǾüƻĸƷڸؼĺ۾ñƻƶȷ˻ҹӦûκӰ졣ҷҲʹֻߺеˮƽٷʡٷ۸񡢲;ҵʲ˷䶯

ּƻƵ״192110£սĽ¾ߵִУάԼСУҧѧߧܣҵɴĻ30֮ǰΪӦ¾ߣһԼӿΪķɢƣҵ͸óɷֶиԶŴ˴˾ͬչ1930꣬Źҵлũҵ廯˶Ĵģչ˹Ҳƽ˴飬ȷΪļ¢ƣȫΪƻ÷񡣾1959ĵڶд飬Ƿĸǰϵ£
1Сԭڲ1959꿪ʼɲ飨ֱ쵼ƵĺĻкҵְһлҡƶȫڼƻලСȫҵʽŴũҵĻͶʲֹ1981꣬ȫ4217֧Т١
2ͶУۧҧѧߧܣҲɡСΪеһ֣1959꣬ԭҵкϲСжɣǹҹͶʵרҵУͳһҵŵĻͶʲڷҵ
3Уҧ֧ҧѧߧܣ˹ϵУ1841꣬1963ʽΪеһ֣ǸĸǰΨһҵĻ
4óУߧ֧ԧҧѧߧܣ1922꣬һҹɷݹ˾ҪɶɹСóһЩж⾭ϵĴҵɣ¢ȫó׺Ͷ⾭ù
ɴ˿ɼڼƻʱСĴССǹеһ֣ʣµóҲɹпعɣ˹м͵ͬҵ

ĸǰҵλΨһĽ㷽ʽͨеġ˻ʽһҵһҵƷʱо˻һʻ˻롱һʻֽڼƻʱֻҵ֧Ĺʡ̵깺Ļǰһ£ҵ˻롱ʣںһ£̵ꡰóеǰ֡˻쵽óҵгƷóУóҵ˻¬ҵ֧ҵƷóֻҵ˻롱¬
ƿȫÿһʾý׵ĺôʹ͸ڼලÿʽǷϹҾüƻ֧ʣҵóֽҵҵ֮䲻ֱӽ˴ڹ˻Ĵҵ˻ֻüƻ涨Ʒп׾ٵ˽һʽ׵ÿֵڣӷȱʣ١еȣжܼʱ֣Ȼǰǹб⡣
ƻµƿƸЧüƻʹȱݣƽҵ͸˴ѡʱüƻ޷ҵ㹻ԭϣҵΪɼȶĿ꣬Ͳò뷽跨ƿеļලöԭϡһʵеķҵ׻һҵԽԼú̿һҵĸнȻڸʱһú̿Ҳòֲܴһ漰ɱɱϢɱȴ󽵵˼ƻõЧʡüƻһصǡᡱص㷢չعҵǾ¹ҵṤҵũҵ˾ƷĶȱáÿֽߵġܶĿꡱDZֺ۾ƽ⣬Ŀ֧õгṩƷ˵ӹоҵְĹְҵﴴƷͷ񡣵ǣڶȱ£ֺ۾ƽ⼸ʵ֡ߡʮƷ깩Ӧ㣬ҲʧҵǣֻÿӡƱ֧ʣĽֻֽͳƣֹ1978ֽ꣬Ѵ2ǧ¬࣬ȫְͣϢ˸£ά ޶¬ʣûи˴еӪ̵ǰĹﳤվ̵ȴտҲũׯͺеͨʾӸ߲£񲻵òֽǿơ봢СҪʵϸļ۸ƣͨͱˡ
ҵЧ¾˥ˣ¬ʣһͨʱᱬȻǵıԴƣΪ˸ı䴫ͳļƻģʽƸĸڱС

ƸĸĹ̺

1987717գίԱˡȫϵͳͼǿж߾ЧӰ졷ľ飬ҿһƸĸĻ19901211գάͨˡз͡ҵ񷨡Էɵʽ80ڵƸĸɹ
˽Ƹĸл˺Ϸλ19885ͨġҵƸǷĸĸʩ֮һӸ϶ҡҵеĹʽⲿʵʩһϹɵСҵкͺ׷׽Щһרҵпعɣģ󡣡ҵ񷨡̶ͨʻʵҲҵҵӪơ˽жй㷺ӪȨҵΧС޺͵ȡʺҵѱ׼лŴȷлչƽҵѡʵУҲܰгԭѡͻƶ¢Ϸֹл̻ᡢϻ֯κ޶ʡ޶ѱ׼¢ҵЭ飬ɹжԡ¢Ϸִмලֹ19928£ڶ˹ڵҵоѴ202Ңۡ⣬ڲͬҵڲֱӦҵŴ磬ҵҵУʱʽл˿ƼУרֿ֧Ƽ¼ƹӦáЩСкͷŴܹеļܻŴеĿƣơЩûΪϵıҪ䣬ڸáٽչʮֻá
Ƹĸרҵн˳顣ҵӹҵ˳ղŷֹԭ3ҴרҵУũУԧާҧѧߧܣҵҵУާۧҧѧߧܣסҵᷢչУڧݧҧѧߧܣũСȫũۺִСŴҵҵҵСڹҵҵͨʵ磬ʼӦίԱᣨߧѧңϵͳִСŴҵסҵᷢչСסҵšĻҵطάõλԼں͸ͶΧִСŴҵ񡣢 óбΪ⾭ûУߧ֧ܧߧާҧѧߧܣԭҵ⾭ûľ֯ҵṩеְܻûз仯ȻרҵеҵֹֻϵģǿûƵƾʽʵչŴҵͽоһֱ1990ĩʵ֡Dzǹеһֻ֣ڹеǼעᲢӪҵִռɣҵӪܹԼ⣬ȫţԱйԱְӶȫ˹ָĸšҲרҵṩʽ𡣸רҵŴʽͨзʱյĸִԭԼŴʽ;ɰƻṩרҵгʹãϢɹй涨ʽʱרҵ֮԰˫Э̵ϢʽͨרҵеŴʹҲָơרҵп԰ŴԭоŴʽصĴʡкͿͻ֮佫ǩͬΥͬҵгȡ⣬ֹͣ´ЩڿҵпƲֹŴͬͨйزծЩרҵֻDZ򵥵ҵҵλתΪҵλȷӪΪĿģΪ˾ӪҪָꡣ1990꣬һɱɷݻɶdzһһз˺͹רҵе춨պ˹ϵĻ
ƸĸʹתΪʽСгŵҵλṩͰ⣬ͬҵֱӵҵϵ1990벿飬ֱά𣬳װѹϵΪִл͹ڡзȷ涨г͵һгͳǷάһΣڹ涨ڣֻеְְʱάְڽṹϣҲһԪʽиĽΪίԱĶԪʽУк͸˹͹ι͹ɣ߻ΪгһгԼ10͹гɵ»ᡣеҪְƶһߡලЭרҵк˽лĻڻüҵĿٵȡжרҵк˽еĵҲֶΪתΪֶΪвֱӹ涨еĴģֻ޶䱾ٴģͨٴȼı仯ӰͿƶеĴģƵأֻ޶䱾ٴʣͳһƶȫʣӶͨٴʵĸߵͣӰ͵ڶеĴʡ֮⣬Ҳʼȫʵд׼ƶȣԴԼ͵ڶеŴеڻҹӦȫùģֶм֤ȯ൱ʽеĹгΥ澭ӪлŴн鴦Էߴ׼ʻӪ֤ӪҵִյijͷϵԼպ˹ϵвɶҡĶλɴȷ
⣬1988ȫίԱԼطίԱᡣίԱܹ»쵼ɸרҵкйۺϹŲμӡְȨֻһЭءȫίԱҪۺŴƻݰִиĽоȶͨ͹᳹ͳһߵȷش⡣طίԱƫڵҵеìףüƻⶨݵط÷չʵоƶιִ᳹йͳһ߼ŴƻĴʩͷȡ
һϵиĸƷ˷츲صı仯ƻ¼¢ƲڣתһԶԪƹΪ쵼רҵΪ塢˽кŴΪͽϵƸ˺۽ڵں΢۾ӪƣǿŴܸ˵ãȴΪƵijױ˷ʡ

ƸĸĽӰ

Ƹĸ﷽ʽȷ19901211գ壨19911225գֻж̶һʱ䡣˵ƻûȫΣѳΪʷˣƾҵʲôӰ죬ԶҲ޷ԡǣƸĸ1987ͿʼˣȻ4￴ЩߡȻƵ߽ʵĹϵ󣬸ӦùڸǷĸʧܣƸĸеijЩҲ˵Ʋá
ҵȻ¢šЩֽʽĸ˵Ƹĸν̥ǡǣЩԸĸﱧֹ̬ȵļɡƸĸЩʩԶԶԭ¢ϵҵŴְֻתƸµġ¢СũСҵҵкסҵᷢչС1990ԺDZͱпչۺʽʵʹҵŴ޿ƥУ˽и޷乹вͬҲ˽Ŵ֮ġͷϴ󡱡ĽǸĸרҵȻʮֱĻߣ1991ǰڵ֡ΪгݡбϡˣʵȻֻǹһغҵĹ˹ߡ
ĸĸʧʹԷЧáǷĸĿ֮һľòΪӯ࣬ΪˣġսԡǣսԡذѾ÷չصȻعҵټԭеڸĸб״ңӶ¸ǷʱṤҵũҵ˿ߣȻտҲͳƣIJ1991ߴ10%15%ޡΪ˽һ⣬òȡֻһֶΡӿгĻʹԭͺص¬ʣѩϼ˪1990ֽͨ1500¬ٷ1990GDPΪ1¬1990ֽ/GDPʳ15%Զŷ˹ϣ10%ͨһ
еġԪϵ߽⡣ҵרҵ¢ţзζǣҵľǴţһҲûֹͣ־СҵͿͻ֮ҵǹк͸طеġξԪƵĹʹ˹͹вٽܹеĴֱ쵼ʱζ˹άίԱϯҶڡз͡ҵ񷨡ͨǰһܾǩ˶˹Լġз͡ҵ񷨡˹͹лԵĶԣǣdzζĹߣճƷһ˵ļ˹͹Ϊʵ׷øֶΰѾҵ͸˵ֽתƽ˹͹СΪ˷ֹܿգͨмӴ¬ķ֧ܿƵҵְʡⳡսһ겻塢˹͹ȫҶк¬Ruble zoneĽսᣬͨ¬һ
ǰƵĸĸûл޶IJֺ¬ʣʹ֮ҡ󣬶˹/GDPʴﵽ21.8%࣬۸񿪷źͨʸǸߴ2508%ᡣ

ġƸĸʾ

ҹңּ80˴ӼƻгתĸĸĸĸȴʧˡʧܵƸĸܸṩǰ֮
ȣƸĸĸĸͬСûơơƵƸĸϣƸĸҲȻ߽ͬĸIJDZȽϼģƸĸҲӦüĸIJDZȽϽģƸĸҲӦýԽƸĸӦļĸЧ΢
ΣڸĸУľԽӲסƹ͹ƺӦöԪʽƣڸû½ģʱ˹͹ֶ޵ĺʵѾֻܼӾ棬̡߽
г£ϵӦþٺ͹ηϵҵһľҵǽҵĺġˣϣҵץζij룬ĽǵҵԹ񾭼ҲɹĺҵӦþԶΣӦڹҷζĹбȶӶαĴ۽С츣ڿͻ츣

עͣ
1ӡ½Ȫſࣺøۡйó19851棬791ҳ
2·ûлҽΣ⡷ʱ³19811棬341ҳ
3ſ٣˹Ƶĸĸŷ⡷19972ڡ
4Ⱥ룺չȫϵͳͼǿж߾ЧӰľ顷ùĸ﷽»19891棬162ҳ
5[]ۣ룺ƶȵıͽķ򡷣ִԡ19921ڡ
6Danial Gros, Alfred Steinhere: Economic Reform in the Soviet Union, Princeton Studies in International Finance, No. 71, November 1991.
7ͬϡ
8ѧתеĻҿ⡷ڽڡ20014ڡ
9ĸ˹תеͨ˹Ƕŷо20033ڡ